Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.