Everyday Killings in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Figures

The typical figure of per-day murders per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new government statistics. But, security analysts have warned that murder numbers could fail to indicate improved national security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably important,” the President stated, noting that in November the lowest number of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also problematic because it could obscure days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders high peaks of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a notable assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.